Letter Series: CEI Communications with US Census Burueau Director Santos re Population Estimates

In July 2022, CEI exchanged communications with US Census Bureau Director Robert Santos advocating for an improved/expanded Population Estimates program. Below is the initial letter to Director Santos.

Excerpt

One of our top priorities now is to ensure that census-derived data are high-quality and properly reflect the composition and distribution of the nation’s population. The prudent allocation of public, private, and nonprofit resources is essential, particularly for individuals and communities that have been historically undercounted, under-represented, and systemically marginalized in our democracy, including people of color, immigrants, low-income and limited English proficient households, LGBTQ people, people with disabilities, and young children.

To that end, we support a robust Population Estimates improvement process to right-size the flow of federal funds to communities undercounted in the 2020 Census. We believe this can be accomplished with additional sources of high-quality state and local administrative data that will reduce undercounts now and in the future…

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Director Santos responded to this letter in August 2022.

Excerpt

Thank you for your co-signed letter regarding the Census Equity Initiative and its support for possible improvements to and expanded resources for the Population Estimates Program (PEP). We understand the significance of the data products produced by PEP to all levels of government as well as private sector stakeholders for enabling efficient community planning, serving as inputs to key rates and measures about our nation’s people and economy, and informing the allocation of funding. Following on the release of 2020 Census coverage measures and the questions inspired by these results, PEP is uniquely positioned to explore what changes to estimates processing may be possible to ensure that the U.S. Census Bureau maintains its commitment to accurate and equitable data.

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CEI/FCI wrote back in response in September 2022.

Excerpt

We are encouraged by the work the Bureau is pursuing to improve the accuracy of the estimates base in light of persistent and growing undercounts of the Black and Hispanic populations, American Indians living on reservation lands, and young children in the 2020 Census. We commend you and the Bureau for your willingness to consider a blended base that corrects systemic undercounts using results from Demographic Analysis and the Post-Enumeration Survey. The Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates network will certainly be a valuable partner for the Base Evaluation and Research Team (BERT) in identifying a wider range of administrative data, with strong privacy protections, to improve the quality of the base estimates.

At the same time, we believe it is essential to include local governments in that effort, as many have access to additional datasets that document more realistic housing unit occupancy rates, such as utility data, and person-per-household rates, such as school enrollment records. While we recognize that municipal governments have not been allowed to challenge key variables in the estimates base previously, we urge you to consider modifications to the appeals process, as well as local consultation to improve the estimates base, that go beyond the narrow scope of the Challenge Program in the previous decades. The housing unit method you referenced could produce more accurate estimates in areas where the population is growing, as the Bureau’s own research previously has shown…

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Director Santos also issued a reponse to this CEI/FCI communication.

Excerpt

In your latest letter, you highlight the importance of including local governments in our efforts to expand the use of administrative data in the development of our April 1, 2020, population estimates base. As noted previously, our Base Evaluation and Research Team (BERT) is currently tasked with assessing the feasibility of taking coverage measures such as the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) and Demographic Analysis (DA) and other administrative records into account in the
development of the estimates base. One goal being pursued by the team is to identify a mechanism for local governments to contribute feedback and suggestions regarding robust administrative record sources. Although these plans are still in the early stages of development, we hope to provide local governments with the opportunity to assist in further improving the quality of the estimates base…

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